Took multiple losses on GBPJPY as it ran through all the trend continuation setups, and the persistence of how it has done this move is something that gives us reason to re-assess trade plans, and be diligent on risks as well as opportunities the conditions we are now in may present.submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]
I feel like I've seen this movie before. Usually when getting squeezed in a trend continuation, there are a few hits you have to take and then there is a big pay off. As a general rule, the better the move will be the harder it is to position for. So early losses on this were all within the acceptable margin of error in this strategy (I think I also made setup errors, which was bad. I can do better on that). After we ran some more setups (that looked fully valid at time of execution), I noped out. Stopped selling, and waited to see what happened.
Last time I remember being on the wrong side of such a fierce move of this form on GBPJPY was similar. Done well shorting, scalped some buys at a support, then reversed into the "correction" - and it went parabolic against me. I remember this well, because in the coming week there were news reports of the GBP having it's best day/week in a yeadecade (I forget specifics, but GBP was in the news for the rally). In the week after that, the high was made .... because that was when Brexit happened.
What happened there, from a charting perspective, is we went into a 2 week corrective cycle and then started another impulsive wave. If this happens we may see something spectacular in GBPJPY in the near term. This may feature a record breaking rally (or at least strong one) into 145, and even 155 (current price 130). From there, we may start a new trend taking the market into the large chart forecasts of 89 and 61.
I can retire if that happens. Absolutely. I'm going to plan, with various contingencies, for something like that possibly happening. In this post I''ll show what warnings signs we got over the last days as sellers. Where our main dangers will be as buyers. The levels as which we can be more sure buyers have won out in the short term, and also where the possible spikes low could come and how we'd trade them / what we'd do next.
I'll use MT4 charting for this analysis, since it will require a lot of different fibs and patterns assessment, I find fibs on MT4 quicker to work with than cTrader.
The Big Gartley Pattern
So the first thing we want to establish is where the buyers are coming from. Double bottom is accurate, but a bit vague. If we look closer, we can see the daily chart pinging off the 61.8 and 76 fib levels. This would be consistent with a Gartley pattern, and this would be a bullish reversal pattern (If successful). We have a couple probable scenarios here. One is a big break and move lower, and the other is a persistent move up in a small time frame trending chart form.
Let's look closer and see what the last days of trading have suggested to us about this.
Here is the 1 hour chart around the 76 level.
We've possibly formed the start of a second trend leg in the recent move up. Our best move here would be wait for a dip, buy into that and then run the trend upwards. We should see more strong moves like today, and these should be in nice structured form giving us easy entries and exits. This would be a good scenario for trading.
If a spike out is to form from this level, we'd now have it in a clear butterfly pattern. So we'd look for a 1.61 extension of this swing giving us a projected low of 125 area. This would be a harder move to trade. We either have to keep selling into the resistance levels and risk multiple small losses, or wait for momentum downwards and use breakout strategies. I feel method one has failed this week. We can perhaps look more at method two in a close under 128 (which will not happen if we are to trend).
As buyers, the possibility of this take out low move is our main danger. We have to be aware this can happen and it will be a fast move if it does. Risk control is important.
Bullish ScenariosFor now I am going to work on trade plans for if price remains above 128.50 and indicates bullish momentum. I want to work on targets and then reversal areas.
When we use the analysis above and consider we may be entering into big corrective leg, we can consider that this might be a 'ping swing' like move.
Remember the main characteristics of a ping swing. It's very strong. The move is parabolic. There's a spike out of major levels, and then there is an impulse leg.
Weigh that against the price action I described the last time I seen the same setup on GBBPJPY running into Brexit. The market followed that same template of price movements, and then came down in spectacular fashion.
This is where our main opportunity is, and this is where it seem the smart way to be betting is at this time. If the lows made here are taken out, we can look for positions around 125 to load up for this (a spike out and rally is still valid).
In the immediate term, we can just buy dips. Use tight stops and get high RR if it runs up, have very small losses to the downside. A correction from 130.20 to 128.50 gives us a great buying opportunity to get started in this move (buying over 130 but under 130.60 I think is a bad trade. Better to wait)
If we can establish a good buy position and see a ping swing move (which would be 2,000 pips - and GBPJPY can do this without many pullbacks, it's wild) the profit potential on this is enormous. Very small risks can be taken for extreme profits on the other end. If we do this and make good profits in the run up to that, we can then use a portion of these profits to position aggressively on the 61.8 spike out, and maybe have big positions in a decade long breakout to the downside in GBPJPY.
Whether or not there is a spike out low, when buying our first target is 145.00. This is either buying from 128.50 or 125 if that trade does not work out.
It would be very dangerous to sell if there is a spike out low into 125. Selling here could be brutal in the whip against you (as could selling in the leg we have but not getting out quick). For some perspective on this, GBPJPY went from 145 to 160 in only a couple strong trading days the last time we had conditions similar to this. The possibility of this, makes it a bad time to be a seller - horrible time to be a stubborn one.
No buys 130 - 130.50. Possible buys if there is a break of this.
Sells possible in this area, but risky. Not great RR. I'd not bother.
Buy level 1 - 128.50. 143 could be swing target here.
128 major bear break area. Danger of fast move here. Cut buys.
125 if met in spike, big buying area. Target 143 and stop 123 (tighter with price action).
145 first major upside resis. If we break this, 155.
Absolutely no selling into parabolic moves on GBPJPY at levels not mentioned here, isn't worth it.
Posts tagged show 123 indicator mt4. PointZero-Trading Review. October 15, 2014 Written by Forex Trader. We use PointZero-Trading per month on the demonstration accounts and also have simply relocated in order to actual. This enables you to adhere to as well as industry a very many foreign currency sets along with minimum work a minimum of on the every day graph foundation, that is generate an ... show 123 indicator. show123 is a mt4 (MetaTrader 4) indicator and it can be used with any forex trading systems / strategies for additional confirmation of trading entries or exits. (downloadable file show123.rar contains show123.ex4 & show123.mq4) Free Download show123 Mt4 Indicator. How to install show123 mt4 indicator in forex trading platform metatrader 4? Extract the downloaded show123 ... I like this indicator too much as it implements DOW theory. You will never be loser if you use it. Just keep faith in it. I use it to enter the market at breakout levels that the indicator show. I recommend everyone to use it. ABC and 123 Forex Chart Patterns Strategy For MT4. The ABC and 123 Forex Chart Patterns Strategy For MT4 is especially designed to trade trend reversals with the well know 123 (ABC) pattern. FREE ABC and 123 Forex Chart Patterns Strategy . Download the FREE ABC and 123 Forex Chart Patterns Strategy for MT4. To receive my email 100% sure: Put my email on your whitelist! Request Strategy. Terms ... The forex 1-2-3 price action pattern trading is most simple yet powerful forex strategy you’ll ever find. It work best when the patterns follow the direction of trend (it also works against the trend). The pattern is also easy to identify on the chart and you can find it every day. Retracement indicators strategy show market price in Buy zone or sell zone. Rules with 123 pattern and retracement. For buy wait for market price retracement; For sell trading chack price in sell zone with indicator signals. Trad M15 or m30 for short term trading. Long trad only h4 time frame. Retracement Forex strategy help for those trader, Submit by Xavier Trader 21/01/2016 Ross Hook Show 123 filtered by envelopes It is a way to interpret the hook very simple and has the advantage of entering the market only in the direction of the trend. The envelopes are build with Ema 34 low and high. This strategy is setting only for 5 minutes and 15 minutes. Financial markets:any. Show 123 rh bb is a mt4 (MetaTrader 4) indicator and it can be used with any forex trading systems / strategies for additional confirmation of trading entries or exits. (downloadable file Show 123 rh bb.rar contains Show 123 rh bb.ex4 and Show 123 rh bb.mq4) Free Download Show 123 rh bb mt4 indicator The 123 Pattern is one of the most popular, powerful and flexible chart patterns. The pattern is made up of three price points: a bottom, a peak or valley, and a fibonacci retracement between 38.2% and 61.8%. A pattern is considered valid when the price breaks beyond the last peak or valley, moment at which the indicator plots an arrow, rises an alert, and the trade can be placed. 123 Pattern Indicators for MT4. NOTE: If you do not yet have the correct MT4 or MT5 charts make sure you read about the best trading charts and the broker to use these indicators with here. 123 Patterns V7 Metatrader 4 Forex Indicator by MT5 Traders. This 123 pattern indicator for MT4 by MT5Traders is used to find potential pattern breakout signals. The indicator draws two colored lines on ...
[index]          
Forex - Kênh Chia Sẻ Thông Tin, Kiến Thức Và Kinh Nghiệm Trên Thị Trường Forex The video shows you how to customise MT4 chart timeframes on the MT4 platform to ANY timeframe you may want to use. USEFUL LINKS:- YouTube Subscribers 50% Di... At first the app may be a bit confusing so I did make this beginner friendly. This video I do a quick, easy, detailed walkthrough on how you can use the Meta... Forex Indicator for Metatrader 4 &5 (MT4 &5): Reversal Diamond Indicator (Approved by MQL5 official) - Duration: 40:10. Reversal Diamond Indicator 162,947 views 40:10 Here is a screenshot of one of my live MT4 accounts detailing trades made from Sun Sep 22nd through to Thurs Oct 3rd. I started with an account balance of about $5,000 and managed to achieve a 37 ... ️MT4 Breakout Box Forex Indicator (Blog Post) https://www.forexstrategieswork.com/mt4-breakout-box-indicator/ The MT4 Breakout Box Forex Indicator makes it ... How to use 123 swing trading system - Best Breakout forex trading strategy \\\\\ The 123 Forex trading strategy is base... Top 7 Mistakes Newbies Make Going Solar - Avoid These For Effective Power Harvesting From The Sun - Duration: 7:14. LDSreliance Recommended for you Adding a Pip Counter to your MT4 Forex Trading Platform to see how many pips you're gaining in your live trades. Link to obtain the Pip Counter is: http://fo... You want to know the REAL.... you want to tap into the mind of a foreign exchange trader. Here's my story, this isn't about stocks. That's something TOTALLY ...